Panorama Country Risk - First Half 2014

This panorama first contains a study on the strength of the British recovery. Thanks to vigorous growth since the second quarter of 2012, we anticipate the UK economy to get back to its pre-crisis level in the third quarter of 2014. A positive short term economic context, like dynamic corporate investment, supported by the flexible monetary policy of the Central Bank, led us to upgrade our risk assessment for the UK to A2. This appraisal is strenghtened by the recent decisions by the monetary authorities to cool down the real estate bubble.

Then we move on in details to the sectoral level, with an analysis from the risk underwriting director for Coface UK. Working in the field, he is on the whole optimistic about their evolution, but points out some remaining significant weaknesses in the British economy, in particular the indebtedness of the private sector and the persistent current account deficit. After a worrying process of deindustrialisation, the study pays particular attention to the renewal of the industry, in sectors which already display impressive successes : the automotive, aeronautics and pharmaceutical industries. Thanks to considerable investment in R&D and remarkable innovations, these sectors are composed of competitive firms which have managed in a relatively short period of time to become world leaders.

Finally, we present in this panorama the last changes in our country ratings (which measure the ability of companies in any given country to make payments), as well as an update on our analyses for countries that are currently under intense media coverage : Russia, Brazil, Italy, India or Algeria.