Panorama Spring 2014
This panorama first includes a study dealing with new emerging markets. While the 2008-2009 global crisis had highlighted emerging market resilience, game changing events have taken place in those emerging countries since May 2013 indeed. The capital outflows linked to political, social and financial tensions attest to the heightened vulnerabilities of certain emerging countries. Their disappointing growth performances only confirm these, especially among BRICS’ countries. Despite this still favourable consumption dynamic in the BRICS, they suffer from supply-side constraints: the downturn in investment is a sign that local businesses no longer have sufficient production capacity to respond to such strong demand. Therefore, we have tried to identify which countries are likely today to take over from them, by paying particular attention to the importance of the outlook for supply and hence for production, rather than for demand and hence consumption.