Cameroon

Growth supported by ambitious infrastructure projects

The economy is expected to accelerate slightly in 2025 and 2026. Mining will play a key role, with 15 new projects planned out to 2027. More specifically, iron ore mining began at the Grand Zambi site in Bipindi in early 2025, and the first exports are expected in the second half of the year. Bauxite mining at Minim Martap is expected to begin in 2026. These projects, respectively led by a Cameroonian investor and an Australian investor, are being rounded out by the construction of transport infrastructure, particularly rail and road. However, uncertainty stemming from trade tensions could negatively affect the projects. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) production is expected to grow by 23% in 2025 alone, thanks to increased extraction from the Sanaga 2 platform and the expansion of the Hilli Episeyo floating liquefaction plant. By contrast, oil production is expected to decline due to ageing fields and insecurity in English-speaking regions, which is delaying the development of new fields. Agriculture will also contribute to growth, with cocoa, coffee, and cotton production expected to increase from 2025 onwards, in line with the building of processing plants. These developments are being encouraged by the authorities, notably through the completion of the second phase of the deep-water port of Kribi and the connection of the Nachtigal hydroelectric power plant in early 2025. These achievements are part of the 2020-2030 National Development Strategy (SND-30), which aims to industrialise the economy by replacing imports and creating large industrial parks. In addition, fiscal measures have been taken to improve the business environment, including tax cuts for SMEs and large companies, as well as incentives for youth employment. Public spending, particularly in the run-up to the October 2025 presidential election, will temporarily boost growth, although public consumption is expected to slow after the election. The increase in US customs duties on Cameroonian products – an 11% tariff was announced in April 2025 – will have a limited direct impact, as exports to the US accounted for only 3.6% of total exports in 2024. Furthermore, Cameroon mainly exports exempt goods (crude oil, timber, gold). However, the indirect impact of the trade war could be more significant, notably as a result of declining global demand for raw materials.

A decline in inflation has been observed on back of CFA franc appreciation against the dollar and falling food and energy prices. In addition, the trade war could lead to a global supply surplus, and low-priced imports, particularly from Asia, could flood the domestic market. In 2025 and 2026, inflation is expected to gradually converge towards the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) target rate of 3%. The slowdown in inflation, which has been observed throughout the region, and the desire to support growth and liquidity conditions, prompted the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) to lower its key interest rate to 4.5% in the first quarter of 2025. A further reduction is expected at the end of 2025. Monetary easing action will encourage private consumption and investment.

Budget consolidation under the auspices of the IMF

With the support of the IMF, the government has continued its fiscal consolidation policy. Efforts are being deployed on several fronts, agreed in exchange for USD 835 million in financing over four years granted in 2021 and combining both optimisation of current government spending and an increase in public revenues (which are still too low) to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio, which should continue to pay off even after the end of the programme in July 2025. On the revenue side, this involves increasing non-oil revenues by broadening the tax base, reducing exemptions, improving tax and customs administrations, and creating new taxes (especially on money transfers and new specific tariffs for international flights outside the CEMAC). However, oil revenues will continue to decline due to lower oil prices and production. The 2025 Finance Act has also extended the voluntary disclosure programme until the end of 2026 to combat tax fraud. In terms of spending, fiscal consolidation will involve controlling operating expenses, particularly by moderating the growth of public sector wages and recruitment, as well as reducing subsidies to public enterprises. In addition, the government plans to phase out subsidies on petroleum products but intends to maintain them at least until the election. However, their cost should remain moderate thanks to lower prices. At the same time, social spending is expected to increase, as the government wants to increase the number of vulnerable households that receive social payment transfers from 180,000 to 210,000 over the period 2025-2027. Spending on goods and services, which also includes election spending, will also increase. Despite this, the deficit will remain low, while the IMF describes the public debt as sustainable.

Regarding external accounts, the current account, which is structurally negative, is expected to see its deficit increase in 2025 and 2026. The decline in oil production and prices will weigh on export revenues. The rise in cocoa prices and growth in iron and LNG production will be unable to compensate for this. Furthermore, agro-industrialisation efforts in the coffee and cocoa sectors will struggle to produce the expected results, with production remaining well below the government's targets. In addition, demand for imported goods and services will remain high, in line with the development of the extractive sector and public infrastructure. The deficit will be financed mainly by FDI linked primarily to extraction. Foreign exchange reserves will remain comfortable (around four months of imports).

Presidential succession postponed by elections

Politically speaking, Paul Biya, who is aged 92 and has been Cameroon’s President since 1982, is running for an eighth term in the 12 October 2025 election under the banner of the Cameroon People's Democratic Movement (CPDM). This merely prolongs the questions surrounding his succession, which remains unresolved and is a major source of political risk. His re-election is completely certain in the absence of a strong opposition leaves, but his age and fragile health suggest that he would not be able to complete another seven-year term. Without a clear succession plan, this risks weakening his RDPC party and triggering a power struggle. The army could then take advantage of the ensuing instability to organise a coup. The opposition, which has been effectively silenced, is struggling to exist with Biya in power, especially since members of parliament from the RDPC party have agreed to postpone the next round of legislative elections (which are traditionally boycotted) for one year, with the aim of limiting competition against Biya in the presidential election. These elections were scheduled to be held in March 2025.

In addition, the authorities are struggling to contain separatist uprisings in the English-speaking regions in the Southwest and Northwest parts of the country, as well as terrorist attacks by Boko Haram and the Islamic State in the Far North region bordering Chad, Nigeria, and the Central African Republic.

Internationally, Cameroon continues to maintain strong relations with France, its long-standing political and economic partner. China will remain a major economic partner thanks to the growing presence of Chinese companies in the construction, iron mining, and agriculture sectors, among others, as well as Chinese government-backed loans for infrastructure projects. In addition, in June 2025, China announced the total elimination of customs duties on exports from 53 African countries. In terms of security, Yaoundé is maintaining its ties with Russia and in 2022 renewed its military cooperation for another five years. The US is currently refusing to reinstate Cameroon into the African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA), from which it has been excluded since 2019 for violating the rights of the English-speaking minority. This would allow Cameroon to benefit from preferential access to the US market. However, the decision to exclude Cameroon from the programme will be reassessed in September 2025 provided that the programme is renewed.

Last updated:July 2025