Stable private and public growth
Throughout 2027, Norway's economy is expected to continue expanding at a moderate pace, as in 2026, supported by a resilient labour market, rising real wages, and still-solid household consumption. Although consumer confidence has softened amid heightened global uncertainty and persistently elevated inflation, households continue to benefit from strong employment conditions, rising wages and improving purchasing power. Government support measures, including ongoing energy-related schemes, should further help cushion the impact of external shocks on domestic demand.
Nevertheless, downside risks remain as the economy is experiencing some stagflationary trends. Inflation has proven more persistent than expected, rising above 3% at one point in 2026, while wage growth remains elevated due to tight labour market conditions. These factors are likely to constrain the pace of monetary easing, keeping financing costs relatively high for households and businesses. As a result, investment activity and more interest rate-sensitive sectors may continue to face headwinds. Furthermore, the uncertain external environment, including geopolitical tensions and slower growth among key trading partners, could weigh on Norwegian exports and business sentiment.
Corporate insolvencies have declined significantly during the first months of 2026, falling by around 15% year-on-year. However, this improvement is unlikely to persist throughout the forecast period. As cost pressures continue to build and demand moderates, insolvency levels has gradually begun to rise again in 2026. This trend is expected to continue in 2027. Higher labour costs, elevated financing expenses, and ongoing pressure on margins are likely to affect vulnerable businesses in particular. Sectors such as hospitality, transport, and business services have already shown signs of deterioration, while export-oriented and energy-intensive industries face growing risks from weaker external demand and increased operating costs. Despite these challenges, the overall level of insolvencies is expected to remain broadly consistent with historical norms.
Balances supported by hydrocarbon revenues
Norway’s external position is expected to remain exceptionally strong in 2027, underpinned by substantial hydrocarbon exports and sizeable returns on foreign investments. While the current account surplus is likely to narrow slightly as energy prices moderate and import demand remain stable, it will continue to be characterised by a large goods surplus driven by oil and gas exports. The services balance is expected to remain in deficit, reflecting Norway’s reliance on imported transport, travel and business services. However, this will be more than offset by a strong income balance, supported by returns from Norway’s extensive stock of foreign assets, notably the Government Pension Fund Global, the world's largest sovereign wealth fund.
Norway’s fiscal position is also expected to remain among the strongest globally. Although government expenditure is set to increase further, supported by defence spending, welfare commitments and targeted measures to shield households and businesses from higher costs, public finances will continue to benefit from substantial petroleum-related revenues and investment income from the sovereign wealth fund. As a result, the government is projected to maintain a sizeable fiscal surplus, while public debt remains low and stable by international standards. Nevertheless, the underlying mainland economy will continue to depend on transfers from petroleum-generated revenues, highlighting the ongoing importance of the oil and gas sector to Norway’s overall fiscal strength.
Balancing energy security with the green transition
The September 2025 general election saw Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre's Labour Party retain power following a marked recovery in public support during the preceding months. The return of former Prime Minister and former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg as Minister of Finance helped strengthen the government's economic credibility. Labour continues to govern as a minority administration, relying on support from a range of centre-left parties, including the Socialist Left Party, Centre Party, Red Party and Green Party. The government's agenda focuses on easing cost-of-living pressures, strengthening public services, maintaining elevated defence spending and addressing rising inequality. Reflecting these priorities, the 2026 budget introduced measures such as higher personal tax allowances, lower childcare costs, increased welfare benefits, and additional funding for municipalities, healthcare, energy support schemes and defence. A large tax reform is expected in 2027, and the next parliamentary election is scheduled for September 2029.
Looking ahead, the government faces the challenge of balancing Norway's long-term climate objectives with the country's continued dependence on the oil and gas sector. A transition commission will examine pathways to reduce reliance on hydrocarbons over the longer term and support the shift towards a lower-carbon economy. However, heightened geopolitical tensions, concerns over European energy security, and disruptions to global energy markets have reinforced the strategic importance of Norwegian oil and gas supplies. As a result, political support for maintaining – and in some cases expanding – hydrocarbon production remains significant, including renewed interest in Arctic developments. Investment in the sector has also strengthened during 2026, reflecting both favourable market conditions and Europe's continued demand for reliable energy supplies. These competing pressures are likely to remain a defining feature of Norwegian policymaking in the coming years, shaping both energy policy and Norway's broader economic relationship with Europe.

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